Strategies of Taiwanese Political Parties during the 2023-2024 Election Campaign

Cover Page

Cite item

Full Text

Open Access Open Access
Restricted Access Access granted
Restricted Access Subscription Access

Abstract

Despite the fact that the presidential and parliamentary elections in Taiwan in 2024 took place in an unprecedentedly difficult international political environment, and the campaign itself was competitive, in general, the election results can be considered as consistent with preliminary polls. However, they highlighted a number of important trends in Taiwan's political life that will influence the island's future: notably, the DPP candidate won for the third time in a row. Although the expert community has recorded a softening of the position of DPP leader Lai Qingde regarding the issue of Taiwan's status compared to the previous period, the general rhetoric of party representatives creates the preconditions for maintaining tension in cross-strait relations. However, the fact that the KMT won the majority of seats in parliament will likely balance the situation. The current campaign is also specific considering that the struggle unfolded not only between representatives of two traditionally opposing camps — the DPP and the KMT but also a serious competition for the candidates came from representatives of the TPP, who also expanded their representation in parliament following the election results. Thus, Taiwan's political landscape is becoming more diverse and needs to be studied more seriously. Competition between the island's political powers inevitably has an impact on the political situation in the Taiwan Strait, which consequently affects relations with the mainland. The relations with Beijing remain a central issue for the political platforms of the main Taiwanese political parties. Within the two largest parties — the KMT and the DPP — relations with Beijing are the issue of serious internal debates. The balance of power in cross-strait relations has undergone major changes in recent years, as Taiwan's political forces have tried to adapt to the generational change and respond to major events such as the 2019 Hong Kong riots and the COVID-19 pandemic. The article examines the changes in the approaches of the Taiwanese parties to relations with the mainland in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2024 and their possible consequences for relations between the sides of the Taiwan Strait.

About the authors

Vasily B. Kashin

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Email: vkashin@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9283-4528
Ph.D. (Political Sciences), Associate Professor, Senior Researcher Moscow, Russia

Anastasia S. Pyatachkova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Email: apyatachkova@hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7319-2371
Deputy Head of the Asia-Pacific Sector of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Moscow, Russia

Victoria A. SGoncharenko

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Email: vagoncharenko@edu.hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0001-7272-2315
Research assistant, Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Moscow, Russia

Arina V. Alexandrova

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Email: avaleksandrova_5@edu.hse.ru
ORCID iD: 0009-0005-9039-3446
Research assistant, Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies Moscow, Russia

References

  1. Киреева А.А. «Движение подсолнухов» на Тайване: причины и последствия социального протеста // Социальный протест на современном Востоке / Под ред. Д.В. Стрельцова. М.: Аспект Пресс, 2016. С. 233-250.
  2. Консенсус 1992 года (Управление государством) // Китайский информационный интернет-центр. 02.04.2019. URL: http://russian.china.org.cn/china/China_Key_Words/2019-04/02/content_74638363.htm (дата обращения: 02.11.2023).
  3. Can DPP's new chair William Lai win the Taiwanese presidential election in 2024? // ThinkChina. January 17, 2023. URL: https://www.thinkchina.sg/can-dpps-new-chair-william-lai-win-taiwanese-presidential-election-2024 (дата обращения: 21.01.2024).
  4. Can the us trust Ko Wen-je’s pragmatism? // China Strategy. April 25, 2023. URL: https://www.chinastrategy.org/2023/04/25/can-the-us-trust-ko-wen-jes-pragmatism/ (дата обращения: 29.10.2023).
  5. Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). URL: https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/cptpp/comprehensive-and-progressive-agreement-for-trans-pacific-partnership (дата обращения: 21.01.2024).
  6. Dotson J. Taiwan’s ‘Military Force Restructuring Plan’ and the Extension of Conscripted Military Service // Global Taiwan Brief. 2023. Vol. 8. Pp. 2-3.
  7. Feng E. Taiwan's China-skeptic ruling-party candidate wins presidential election // NPR. January 13, 2024. URL: https://www.npr.org/2024/01/13/1224576576/taiwan-ruling-party-wins-election (дата обращения: 16.01.2024).
  8. Grano S. The Geopolitical Implications of the Taiwanese Elections for China, the United States and the World // Asia Society Policy Institute. January 12, 2024. URL: https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/geopolitical-implications-taiwanese-elections-china-united-states-and-world (дата обращения: 14.01.2024).
  9. Hua-chien Kao, Sunrise Huang, Sean Lin. New Taipei Mayor Hou Takes Leave to Focus on Presidential Campaign // Focus Taiwan. September 23, 2023. URL: https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202309230020 (дата обращения: 16.01.2024).
  10. Marinaccio J., Remžová D., Chen Y. Taiwan’s 2024 presidential election and its candidates. What to expect in foreign policy and cross-Strait relations? // Central European Institute ofAsian Studies. CEIAS Papers. October, 2023. URL: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/374813044_Taiwan's_2024_presidential_election_and_its_candidates_What_to_expect_in_foreign_policy_and_cross-Strait_relations_Taiwan's_2024_presidential_election_and_its_candidates_What_to_expect_in_foreign_poli (дата обращения: 29.12.2023).
  11. Pertiwi S.B., Kabinawa L.N.R.W., Elias R.A. The Diplomacy of Quasi-State in the Territorial Disputes: Taiwan in the South China Sea // Journal Hubungan Internasional. 2020. Vol. 8. No. 2. Pp. 153-167.
  12. Political parties // Taiwan political database. URL: https://www.taiwan-database.net/LL-M10.htm (дата обращения: 29.10.2023).
  13. Rigger S. Taiwan’s 2024 elections: Everyone’s a winner—and a loser // Brookings. February 2, 2024. URL: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/taiwans-2024-elections-everyones-a-winner-and-a-loser/ (дата обращения: 10.02.2024).
  14. Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Election: Analyzing Hou Yu-ih’s Foreign Policy Positions // Council on Foreign Relations. December 26, 2023. URL: https://www.cfr.org/blog/taiwans-2024-presidential-election-analyzing-hou-yu-ihs-foreign-policy-positions (дата обращения: 16.01.2024).

Supplementary files

Supplementary Files
Action
1. JATS XML

Copyright (c) 2024 Russian Academy of Sciences