System-dynamic simulation model of socio-economic development of the Republic of South Ossetia

Мұқаба

Дәйексөз келтіру

Толық мәтін

Ашық рұқсат Ашық рұқсат
Рұқсат жабық Рұқсат берілді
Рұқсат жабық Тек жазылушылар үшін

Аннотация

A strategy of socio-economic development of the state is based on the develpment of long-term forecasts covering the main vital areas, as well as based on its directions and methods of state policy implementation. However, to date, a question of the most acceptable method of forecasting from the point of view of a final result (which is the occurrence of predicted events and/or the achievement of the values of indicators of socio-economic dynamics of the state) remains debatable. In this paper, in order to develop a forecast of a socio-economic development of the partially recognized Republic of South Ossetia, taking into account significant limitations of its statistical data for a period of 14 years (from 2008 to 2022), as well as a presence of structural imbalances, the use of the method of system-dynamic simulation modeling is justified. It allows overcoming the limitations associated with the use of econometric models. As a result, authors calculated 4 forecast scenarios for a development of the Republic, reflecting a different level of its self-development. The authors come to a conclusion that the strategic plan requires the development of a set of long-term measures that simultaneously combine, on the one hand, a reduction of budget expenditures on the most capacious items; and on the other – the exit of part of the entrepreneurial activity from the “shadow”, as well as its enhancement in the promising areas. The developed system-dynamic simulation model of socio-economic development of an individual state allows, in general, to improve the quality of long-term forecasts calculated by researchers, as well as to ensure a high level of validity of decisions taken by public authorities.

Толық мәтін

Рұқсат жабық

Авторлар туралы

K. Goncharova

Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Хат алмасуға жауапты Автор.
Email: ksenia.gon4arowa@gmail.com
Ресей, Yekaterinburg

A. Kolomytseva

Ural Federal University

Email: anniris21@rambler.ru
Ресей, Yekaterinburg

A. Shelomentsev

Ural Federal University

Email: a.shelom@yandex.ru
Ресей, Yekaterinburg

M. Pavlov

Ural Federal University

Email: pavlovmark24@gmail.com
Ресей, Yekaterinburg

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